Reverting to a two-week timeframe (the previous two reports each covered three weeks) 814 drops and 68 increases have been detected on MyHome.ie.
Irish Property Watch
..speculate to accumulate?
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Recent Comments
Reverting to a two-week timeframe (the previous two reports each covered three weeks) 814 drops and 68 increases have been detected on MyHome.ie.
July 31, 2007 at 10:12 am
IPW, Thanks again for your report.
July 31, 2007 at 10:49 am
I’ve also been tracking the price drops at myhome.ie. My numbers are very similar to yours, and can confirm the easing off of price drops in recent weeks. I’ve also been looking at properties with double listings, you can see the post here;
http://treesdontgrowtothesky.blogspot.com/2007/07/be-careful-which-estate-agent-you.html
July 31, 2007 at 11:24 am
Hi
It seems there are a few price movements missing. Don’t get me wrong I’m not being critical. I am very grateful for this info. Just really pointing out to people that there are other movements not recorded here.
One such is the builder trying to offload the apartments he has been unable to sell in the SouthMeade development in Dundrum. He was trying it as 525,000 but cause he has been able to sell he has hiked the prices up to 540. I’m confident he will be able to sell the few he hasn’t sold given this price increase.
Are all builders mad? Cause there is just no way of explaining this behavour. Maybe it’s got something to do with the 400 new apartments he is now selling accross the road, previouly called Dundrum point. I don’t think he is having an easy time offloading those either.
There are 4 unsold I know of and two private sellers trying to get out of SouthMeade. Lets wich them luck.
July 31, 2007 at 1:07 pm
This reports shows that things are not getting better – they are getting worse, never mind the pace. As regards the builders raising their prices in the face of disaster this is a way of trying to “up” the offers – they figure, in their panic, if they raise the price the low offers will come in higher.
None of this bodes well for the future of house prices for those who have investment properties.
July 31, 2007 at 3:59 pm
I contacted several (4) EA’s on the back of surfing the daft.ie web site for a 3 bed semi and found that the listed price was actually lower than what was advertised price on the website. If this was a once off i wouldnt of really passed much regard however this was four indpendant estate agents.Now not to sound paranoid but could that be a way for the EA’s to mask falling prices.
July 31, 2007 at 5:16 pm
The Galway Advertiser is the main source of property porn in Galway, as the weeks go by more and more houses are being advertised with a ‘Price on Application’ tag line. I am assuming that this is another way of masking real prices in the market.
July 31, 2007 at 6:27 pm
Are these 814 additional properties that have experienced price reductions from the last report on July 15th?
July 31, 2007 at 6:39 pm
“Are these 814 additional properties that have experienced price reductions from the last report on July 15th?”
These are properties that have price reductions/increases in the past two weeks, i.e since the last report.
July 31, 2007 at 8:47 pm
Thank you. And also, thanks for the work that you are doing.
August 1, 2007 at 10:58 am
Great work!
Will we see a return of the Daft reports soon?
August 1, 2007 at 1:15 pm
Whats the deal with the ESRI report…isn’t it late?
August 1, 2007 at 3:41 pm
It will be interesting to see what happens as time goes on. Seasonally, this is a quiet time for EAs… reflected in the smaller property supplements in the newspapers at this time of year.
If people are holding off selling until September, it will lead to yet another glut of unsold properties then. Add to that another interest rate rise due to be announced, and an expected drop in construction industry employment after the builders’ holidays.
Interesting times, folks.
Well done to IPW for putting in all this work and getting the truth ‘out there’.
August 2, 2007 at 8:30 am
Excuse my ignorance, but what is an EA?
August 2, 2007 at 8:41 am
Duplicate entries for Karibu Sana, Broomfield, Malahide, Co Dublin
BTW Bill, EA = Estate Agent
August 2, 2007 at 9:12 am
Thanks VM
August 2, 2007 at 10:17 am
This one in Schull slipped past as well which is kinda weird. Are they changing the ID ( or whatever your using as your primary key) when they relist?
It’s a genuine 25% drop
Was 600k
http://209.85.135.104/search?q=cache:ODKV56karmcJ:www.daft.ie/cork/schull/1253244/+Sea+Breeze+Cottage+Schull,+daft&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=ie
now 450 and sale agreed.
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=253244
Very interesting site btw. Fantastic work.
August 2, 2007 at 12:19 pm
quote Nick Says:
“This one in Schull slipped past as well which is kinda weird. Are they changing the ID ( or whatever your using as your primary key) when they relist?”
Nick, the reports are only based on myhome properties at the moment.
Daft is something that we have done in the past and may look to re-introduce again in the future.
August 2, 2007 at 3:22 pm
Problem for buyers is that a significant % of sellers can afford to wait or just rent out when the need arises. The demand seems to be there so there will be alot of renters out there while they are waiting to buy. This may also explain the slight increase in rents.
As long as the jobs are still here prices won’t drop back more than 10%.
August 2, 2007 at 9:20 pm
James Said:
“Problem for buyers is that a significant % of sellers can afford to wait or jut rent out …. as long as the jobs still here prices won’t drop back more than 10%”
Sorry James, have to disagree with your analysis. Check with any EA, the majority of non-Developer vendors HAVE to sell, they are in a chain, having comitted to selling their own houes on the back of already purchasing another residenace (not an investment property). Similiarly, many developers, but certainly not all, will have to sell many of their new units in order to reimburse their backers/bankers. Add to that the fact that over the last number of years ‘we’ have built more residential units that ‘we’ need.
Finally, property has already dropped by 20% on average in may areas in the last 6 months. The problem is not stamp duty, nor tax relief or uncertinanty about interest rates, it’s quite simply that people can not afford the inflated prices being asked for properties in an environment where interest rates are increasing, and are likely to continue to increase for the forseeable future (don’t mind what BoI say, the global financial markets expect 3 x 0.25% increases in Eurozone rates beteween now and March 08).
August 2, 2007 at 10:34 pm
Anyone think the ESRi delay is suspicious
August 3, 2007 at 12:53 pm
I have just realised something. I was saying how exasperated I was that stupid builders were raising the price of newly built properties. If fact I think the buggers are not that stupid.
Imagion you put a 5000 Euro deposit down on an apartment 8 months back. Now you have to complete on that sale. If you saw prices had dropped from 500,000 to 425,000 you would not complete would you? A 5000 loss is better than a 75,000 loss.
So the builder actually increases the price to 525,000 just until all his bookings have been completed. This fools the buyer into completing in a declining market.
Oh wait you say. People can’t just pull out they would be sued. No they wouldn’t, these contracts were set up in a time where the builder knew the advantage of having a loose contract .i.e. they would drop buyer and return deposit if they could get a higher price elsewhere. I have also read that if you pull out of a contract that is legally binding then you don’t have to wory either cause the legalities are such that the builder or seller are extremely unlikely to get a favourable ruling and even if they do they won’t get any money from the ruling.
August 3, 2007 at 1:19 pm
Hi, I’ve just signed for a property. it was 14 shelmartin ave, marino (3 bed 950sq ft). It was reduced during june 2007 from 490 to 475 when a sale fell through. I bid 470 and got it. Then I negociated at 20K decrease for extra work that I had to do on the house. So it sold for 450K in the end.
Keep up the good work on the reports. I’m sure there’s a lot more price decreases during negociation of second hand properties.
August 3, 2007 at 5:46 pm
ESRI report has traditionally come out in last days of the month following the month for which it purports to show mortgages drawn down. They are probably going to issue it saturday of the aug weekend, or sunday, when almost everyone is away and not reading papers or watching tv. It is plain manipulation of news flow. Figures must be awful.
August 4, 2007 at 2:09 pm
Our friend from the west is wrong regarding the ESRI. It is totally independent and just prepares the reports. If the report is prepared for an outside organisation e.g. Permanent TSB, then the report is the property of the person who pays for the report.
On the subject of other reports, the IIB Annual report with the ESRI on personal debt will be published in September, I have been advised. This report issued in June of last year. Also the IBF’s report for the second quarter’s mortgage market should issue towards the end of August. The IBF deliberately delayed the report for the first quarter to aid their friends in Fianna Fáil. No bad news could be released during the election campaign!
The one report that did come out was the Central Bank’s monthly analysis of borrowing. Borrowing is still increasing at an unsustainable pace, even mortgage borrowing. When the borrowing stops then the crash will be really be with us.
I also see that the Bank of Ireland is expecting three further interest rate rises, two before Xmas and one in 2008. However, the Germans have reported their biggest fall in unemployment since 2000 for June – Irish unemployment is moving the opposite way.
Interest rate rises are used by the ECB to ward off the long-term threat of inflation. The danger of inflation in Germany caused by increasing employment and higher wages will be on the mind of the ECB, not the problems of the Irish bubble economy. I would expect a base rate of 5% by next year’s summer holidays. Then we will hear the squealing.
August 4, 2007 at 3:28 pm
The gyrations of the wold stockmakets in the last couple of weeks are because money is getting scarce around the western world.
The ECB and the US fed have been controlling interest rates of the last few years. That control is slipping as lending to large organizations dry up. This means that the price of money is going to rise perhaps rapidly perhaps not. Interest rates are the price of money so regardless of the ECB “s wishes the rate could go up well beyong what the ECB and the Fed would like.
As for the property maket, Its falling, banks will want more security. look for a 75% max mogage or or even worse to be the norm in the near future.
August 4, 2007 at 9:07 pm
There is however a very scary prospect no connected with property. Greenspan transmogrified the dotcom bubble bust into housing bust, could the housing bubble be transmogrified into something else?
August 5, 2007 at 12:46 am
http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=IRELAND-qqqs=news-qqqid=25692-qqqx=1.asp
Today’s SBP has a piece saying the banks with large loans to developers and builders are carrying out additional risk assessments.
It looks like all of the points made above are valid. Get yourselves jobs in the Public Sector asap!
August 5, 2007 at 9:26 am
The Permanent TSB/ESRI report is based on Permanent TSB figures, but prepared jointly by the two bodies. It will not be out until some time after the bank holiday, because the relevant Permanet TSB person was on holiday.
Incidentally, this report is not based on actual sales figures / mortgage figures / sale agreed figures, or anything tangible like that. It is (as Shane Ross pointed out a couple of weeks ago) based on valuations, so is very prone to subjectivity.
The ECB in their most recent (tele)conference on interest rates signalled a very probable rise in September (but they used language that suggested that might change over the next few weeks). They also suggested that more interest rate increases may not happen – and indeed are ever less likely this year. The latest economic figures, which still suggest a strong and robust recovery in the major EU countries, do indicate that the interest rate increases are having the appropriate affect, so I wouldn’t necessarily rely on much more.
I still, however, think that the Irish housing market has gone past the point of no return, and will see serious falls over the next few years. As for the economy as a whole. it is more difficult to say – other economic indicators suggest Ireland is still doing very well.
August 5, 2007 at 6:13 pm
Regarding the points made above, the German economy is more open to inflation than any other European economy as retailers have already absorbed an increase in VAT rates. Margins are already very tight therefore any increase in costs will be passed on to German consumers.
My understanding is that the ECB does not normally have a press conference after their (remote) get-together. Holding a press conference certainly suggests a greater degree of worry regarding inflation. The consistent growth in German economy – just look at their export growth – is unlikely to be derailed by a higher euro because very little of their exports are priced in dollars. A stronger Euro indeed reduces the price of raw materials keeping inflation under control.
Almost all economic advisers are hoping for consumer spending to continue growing. However, much of the spending is funded from borrowing – look at the IBF’s figure for top ups and re-mortgages.
Unlike Germany the Irish “miracle” is based on the quicksand of borrowing and personal expenditure.
August 6, 2007 at 6:05 am
Some very astute comments have been made on this board over the last week. It is clear that there are some very capable contributors, it is a pity such comments are not refleced in the the mass media.
Irish consumers are unfortunately ill served by their media – throughout the 1980s and early 1990s we knew nothing of widescale corruption that was taking place – only Vincent Brown skirted around the issue. It took a firm of Northern Irish solictors to bring the whole thing to light. And nothing much has changed in 20 years with the media – for the last decade the mantra of borrow, buy and spend has been trumpeted by vested interests in the economy . The meida has bleeted out this propoganda endlessly and stampeded people into the some of the highest level of personal indebitness in the OECD and EU. Did anyone ever stop to ask what kind of economic sucess story requires people to borrow so much money?
Only in recent months have the “experts” changed their tune on the general health of the economy and property market – they have gone from “its going up forever” to “it is going to rise a little” to “it will fall a litte but rise by the end of the year” to “it will fall this year and rise next year”….and we all know what is coming next. I suspect in a year or two years time when the consequences of hugh indebtiness has impaced people that some tribunal will be set up. I will save the government 40 million and tell what it will find. The estate agents make a cut when they sell a house, as do the solictors, as does the Exchequer as does the guy who arranges the loan. They all buy advertising in the papers which means the papers will sing the same tune. The net result is that without our own central bank to control indebitness with higher interest rates the country went on a debt fueled orgy of drunken excesses. And like all “drunk” people we believed our own hype.
August 6, 2007 at 11:00 am
Very fair points, all of them true. Tv licences are better regulated than the financial industry; the VI’s like estate agents and builders/land owners believe they have a god given right to use their money and lands to exclusively persue their own interests. Every member of any democracy must remember that it is the integrity of the system to be fair and the good will of the mass public that allow these charlatan’s to generate their vast wealth. Revolutions have relieved these ill educated self absorbed few from their mass abuse of the rights afforded to them; an economic collapse in ireland will yield similar results but it shouldn’t have been allowed to come to that. I have respect for those that create their own wealth through ingenuity rather than having the luck to be in the right place at the right time; cute enough or with contacts to the banks and more importantly the greed and avarice to push everything to the max to extract the maximum price. These are unpatriotic acts and many of these overweight, crass, intellelectually moribund parasites would cause many of our brave and self sacrificing founding fathers to turn in their modest graves at the greed and self indulgence of the modern Irish; indeed those with religious tendencies could offer a similar homily on Jesus. Either way the point is that these idiots (with governmenr blessings) have preyed on their own kind off the back of a government created by heroes and run by Bertie (sure what would I know I’m only a gobsh*te- and with the biggest salary for a first minister outside the US!). Its time for the people to be driving vested interests in this country; the majority have the most pressing needs – affordable housing, a competent representative government (people who run the country should have proper qualifications), responsible industry, empathetic business culture that treats us as partners rather than prey, a banking industry that will use information to make responsible decisions on loans by reducing credit when there is obviously a glut rather than twisting this info to squeeze more out of the public. Breaking news is that the public are not all idiots, fool me once – shame on you; fool me twice – shame on me.
August 6, 2007 at 1:04 pm
Has anyone else noticed that the entire Alliance building in the Gasworks (the one actually in the old gasometer) remains unsold, despite weeks of viewings? The builders moved out of the site months ago, but no-one has moved in. Perhaps something to do with the 800k pricetag for a 2-bed apt??
August 6, 2007 at 5:26 pm
Hows this for a laugh: House proces to rise 40 percent in UK. Maybee…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6932304.stm
August 7, 2007 at 7:21 am
I was doing some work a while ago down in Google’s offices in Barrow St. One lunch-time I went around to see the Gasworks site.
Firstly, it is a nice job and reminded me of the beautiful 19th century residential buildings in Budapest and other Central European cities with the central communal area. However the units themselves are very cramped. Had the developer reduced the number of units by 20-25% and increased the size of each individual unit, then we would have a landmark development. An additional 150-200 sq feet per unit would even make me consider living there!
August 7, 2007 at 8:00 am
The developer appears to be trying to let out the gasworks apartments on daft, see http://www.daft.ie/searchshortterm.daft?search=1&selected_agent=5732&id=5203&s%5Bagent_id%5D=5732&s%5Bp%5D=qpwwstpq
I presume it is the developer because they refer to more than one aparment the rate quoted for the 2 bedroomed apartment is 4300 PCM – it claims it can sleep four, but I doubt that anyone is going to pay that kind of money to share a room with someone, even a couple paying 2150 could spend the money elsewhere and get privacy.
August 7, 2007 at 2:46 pm
Has anyone seen the article in today Indo about the “9% rise” in property prices for the first quarter.? I don’t understand why this stuff STILL gets into print. It is a distortion of figures of course which results in this claim but why are the newspapers still willing to repeat these lies and give voice to this stuff?
The gov is essentially comparing the first quarter of 07 with the first quarter of 06 but they could have compared it with first quarter of 05 and got even better results They do not say what the prices were at the beginning of the 07 quarter and compare this to the end of 07 quarter. Sickening…
August 7, 2007 at 3:49 pm
To Anonymous Says
Has anyone seen the article in today Indo about the “9% rise” in property prices for the first quarter.? I don’t understand why this stuff STILL gets into print. It is a distortion of figures
Of course its a distortion of reality but provable from their perspective and i listened on the radio this morning as the minister for housing Batt whatever his name is agreed with an economist from HOK who tried to say prices were arriving at a more realistic level for buyers moving forward and then avoided questions on stamp duty etc.
Talk about the blind leading the indifferent Id like to know what the ministers qualifications are to justify his statements other than the VI of a government hoping for a miracle to dig them out of this one as we see developers beginning to fall foul of the banks because the market has begun to implode.
And the radio programme, why wasnt it balanced by another econimist with a different perspective or at least someone who could either ask questions more knowledgable than the presenter who was obviously out of their depth.
August 7, 2007 at 4:14 pm
Year on year figures will disappear from autumn this year. Then they will use figures like, “over last 3 years property has increase 10%”..blah blah blah…real estate agents do the same thing globally, but the dog and the cat know what’s going on. games over long ago, damage control now.
August 7, 2007 at 6:39 pm
Batt O’keefe should be in a field rounding up cattle. He should not be giving gulible idiots advise on the housing market. It is a fact of life in a democracy that the biggest idiots run the show. The smart and honest people are kicked out of parties like Fianna Fail or ignored until they leave.
The sad thing though, is the fact that these thick buggers are in government but don’t actually want to make a difference. They simply see it as a way of making money. Imagion if we hired CEO’s with excellent track records to run the various departments of government. They would make election commitments to say 10 policies. They would allocate a portion of their salary to each of these commitments. For example, 10% to class sizes of less than 20 students, 10% to … you get the idea.
Good God, we would actually get an effective governemt. Instead we have Ahern and his henchmen making policies to cater for their benefactors, the builders. There is simply no way the property market can recover without big falls in property prices.
1)The price of a property is dependent on the size of mortgages people can get.
2)The size of your mortgage is determined by the size of your salary and interest rates.
3) When interest rates double the mortgage you can get is seriously decreased.
4)It doesn’t matter what the bloody sentiment is at this stage. You have a reduced mortgage, no two ways about it.
5)The price of property must drop to meet the new mortgages.
6)Since we have a load of ignorant people selling (unlike say in the spot markets) they refuse to drop cause they simply don’t understand that the buyer can’t offer them any more money.
6)They hold out waiting for a better price cause they think that they can actually get a better price.
7)At some stage sellers come to a point where critical mass has been reached and numerous must sell.
8)They drop their prices.
9)The buyer has been watching falls and refuses to buy waiting for lower prices.
10)Some people loose their homes. Buyers still refuse to buy as prices are still falling and the whole thing makes them very nervous anyway.
The obfustication put about by the Vested Interests (VI) will do one simple thing. It will prolong the slump. In the US, the government recognoised this a long time ago. They take economic measures to ensure visability and therefore a quick recovery. (Do I need to explain? Judging by the posts here I think not) So due to the utter incompetance of our government we will suffer longer from something they had a hand in creating. Because they only have Batt O’Keefe to go to to inform them about the market. Oh, I almost forgot, their benefactor the builder doesn’t know much about the market either and he thinks he can talk it back up too. Don’t forget, builders are not typically well educated, they are usually hands on types of guys. A lot of dubious businessmen have made a lot of money from property during the boom.
Once again as Warren Buffet said, “It is only when the tide goes out do you see who was swimming naked”.
August 8, 2007 at 5:47 am
No point getting annoyed about it – the vested interests will throw up any kind of smokescreen to keep the party going as long as they can. The level of economic analysis provided by the media is truly laughable. Some of the interviews are so idiotic that you seriously wonder how these people got their jobs. But so be – the public gets what he public wants I suppose, so many people have bought houses and investment properties based on the certainty that that prices were rising forever that you simply cannot tell them the truth. It needs to be revealed and fed gently to them. The politicians arent fools – they play their cards well. Not one would ever question the housing market because they dont want to be blamed for the collapse. And to be honest it is easy to say the people were led up the path, but there was alot of running as well… people are greedy for a quick buck.
August 8, 2007 at 6:01 am
The media manipulation is quite sophisticated – at least on the part of the “economic experts” and who predicted that prices would rise forever. You know type who are wheeled out by the banks and autioneers to parrot and bleet the same phrases every month. Now they are questioning how we measure house prices. Suddenly these figures arent very accurate, they arent a science more of an art etc… They never questioned them once when they were rising, but when they start to fall then suddenly they are unrelaible and imprecise.
The delay in the publication of the TSB/IP index is telling – it must be pretty bad. We were told that the person who compiles it is on “holiday” by a poster called USMHOT – this person obviously has some first hand knowledge so I might ask them can they name another holiday period when the index was late? The poster also said that the report was” not based on actual sales figures / mortgage figures / sale agreed figures, or anything tangible like that” but prone to “subjectivity”. Someon very suspicious person, not me mind you, might think that they say the figures were bad by mid-july and held back while other figures which were”postive” figures were published in a hope of keeping the herd calm. Now that the “prices are up 9%” figures were released yesterday they can write off the TSB/IP figures as “confusing” and “contradictory” and indicative of a stagnating market. And to be honest it is all working very well, the signs from most indicators are that prices are falling month on month by 1% ish. If they can keep the public convinced that are just stagnant then they remove reasons to wait and they can off-load the supply coming down the line onto them.
No doubt when the proverbial you know what hits the market, all these “experts” will say “well we didnt want to spook the market” we were only acting responsibly by holding back figures.
August 8, 2007 at 7:33 am
Shane Ross had an artice in the Sunday Indepedent a couple of weeks ago questioning the way this figure was compiled, and he confirmed that it had nothing to do with house sales but it was put together by agents of the PRTSB who had a vested intrest in keeping it from “crashing”.
Why do the ESRI which I thought was an independent State organisation attach its name to this figure?
August 8, 2007 at 7:45 am
In answer to an earlier question if my memory is correct the TSB/ESRI figures were not published over the period Dec 01/Jan 02 which coincided with the last (short) period of falling prises. The ESRI will ensure the figures are accurate and as objective as possible given the variation in houses. All TSB can do is withhold publication or spin the conclusions.
August 8, 2007 at 8:15 am
The point is well made in a previous post – why is the ESRI giving its imprimatur to privately collated figures issued by the IP/TSB ? It is I suppose indicative of the nature of the whole problem in Ireland – the media pool is too small and they are hand fed information like seals in the zoo. You give them a fish and then they do a bit of a jump for you and come back for more fish. The same names arise all the time – there are about seven people whom I can identify who have been given extensive exposure to the media to peddle their “expertise”. Any economist worth his salt should be able to recognise an asset bubble. But I suppose you would not keep your job long with a real estate agent if you said “You know what I think house prices are overvalued , you shoudl wait a year as I expect prices will fall”. or if you worked for a bank and you said “interest rates are going to rise so I would not borrow too much money at the moment” .There is only one message they are paid to give out and that is “buy now, get in quickly”.
No doubt at some point in the future there will be a tribunal concerning this – and all the of cheerleaders of rising house-prices will be exposed as just paid advocates of one position – nothing wrong with that I suppose once we were all told this. But by defining yourself as an “economist” or “expert” then Joe Public thinks they are getting an independent analysis. But as usual in Ireland, nothing will ever happen and Joe Public will end up carrying the can as the “economists” from all the estate agents and banks retire to their comfy houses on the South side – which have been paid for based on the suckers being lured into borrowing and buying.
August 8, 2007 at 8:48 am
0749, if that is your real name …
USMHOT can in fact point out several times in the last year when the PTSB/ESRI report was late, because USMHOT has been following the housing market very closely for the last 5 years, mostly because USMHOT was disgusted when he moved back from the uk to discover the complete lack of reason in the housing market, and USMHOT would love to buy a place to live in, but cannot justify paying the exorbitant amounts expected for crappy little sh*t-holes in Bally-bogland.
USMHOT has no more “first hand knowledge” than is available to you or to anyone else. He simply has the intelligence to find the ESRI website and read what is publically available therein to all and sundry and send an email to the publically provided address asking about the methodology used in the PTSB/ESRI index. Having read the full description of how the PTSB/ESRI index is compiled USMHOT has the wit to realise that the approach is reasonable anb justifiable and USMHOT’s main gripe is with the legitimacy of the ‘valuations’ rather than anything else. USMHOT is every bit as angry about the spin provided by the VIs and their government lackeys as you, and others, appear to be.
I suggest, 0749, or whatever your name is, that before you go off on a rant you check carefully all the facts and post reasoned, impartial and objective points rather than churlish, paranoid and groundless accusations of conspiracy.
August 8, 2007 at 9:59 am
Hello Mr. Usmhot – presumably this is your real name? Why not post under your name? If you had followed irish business stories in the last two decades then you would use the term “paranoid” carefully. Who would have thought most of our leaders were crooks and the there was a private bank being run out of cement company. And that the majority of Dublin Corpo were taking kickbacks hand over fist in a pub beside the city council chambers. Go sit in the tribunal for a couple of days. Based on this it is on a “conspiracy theory” to suggest that certain vested interest would “adjust” or delay figures that would make things look better than they are. In fact I doubt it would be illegal – just a form of spin. But you seem very annoyed at my suggested, I wonder why. How did you know the report could not be published because someone was on holiday? How did you find that fact out one week ago? Did PTSB really email you and tell you this …. it would seem very strange indeed.
August 8, 2007 at 1:27 pm
Just as a matter of intrest has UMSHOT or 0749 bought a house in the last number of years?.
August 8, 2007 at 1:47 pm
No I cant say that I have, but I dont think that affects the validity of either or our comments. Although, it is telling we have nothing back from USMHOT. All he has to do is post a copy of the email from IPTSB telling him that the report would be late because the critical person was on holiday. He announced this fact on Aug 5th and claims he got this information from IP by email. Well produce the email.
It is well known that many papers and radio shows monitor this board occassionaly and have in fact contacted the host for interviews. Please correct me if this is wrong. Its figures have been quoted in a national paper. So we would be naive not to believe that a few people with vested interests would like to stick a spoke in the works. I am not saying USMHOT is such person, but if he isnt the produce the email or tell us how he found out why the report was late, before going on to to question is accuracy . If he doesnt that it appears he is working for either IP/TSB or ESRI. Ball is your court USMHOT.
August 8, 2007 at 4:13 pm
Previous TSB/ERSI report can be found here along with the dates that they were published
http://www.permanenttsb.ie/news/hpi_archive.asp
You’ll note that most reports are published at the end of the following month, but that sometimes they are a few days late. The current delay is the worst on record though.
Last year the June report was released 31/7, in 2005 it was released 5/8, in 2004 it was 26/7, 2003 was 29/7, 2002 was 12/7, 2001 was 12/7.
August 8, 2007 at 4:28 pm
You have had nothing back from me because I’m not obsessed with checking this website every 10 minutes.
Last straw> I haven’t bought a house in Ireland at all – for the last five years or so I’ve firmly believed the market was ridiculously overpriced. I’d love to buy a house, and plan to do so when the current crash has brought them down to what I would consider reasonable and affordable levels.
0749> a week ago I was expecting the PTSB/ESRI index and when it hadn’t appeared I emailed the contact shown on the website (are you capable of finding it?) to ask when it would be ready. I also asked how it was compiled, because the Shane Ross article surprised and dismayed me and I wanted to confirm it for myself. Personally, I have thought that the falls in house prices must be larger than those indicated in the reports over the last 6 months, because of the figures being gleaned by the great work on this website, and others such as Daftwatch. The ESRI contact openly answered my email and told me that the relevant person in PTSB was on holiday, and also sent me a copy of a PDF detailing the methodology used. The PDF document confirmed what Shane Ross had written. I am not for one minute fooled by the spin being presented by the VIs and the government. I have no doubt that prices are tumbling and hope they will tumble a lot more for the forseeable future.
So, pull your head in and stop ranting before the men in white coats track you down.
August 8, 2007 at 6:28 pm
You say they “openly answered your email” so why not provide a copy of it? – it would be an easy thing to do. You dont need to include the receiver, I dont want to know your name, but do include the sender. If you cant provide a copy of the email then I think it is clear to every one what is going on. Just post the email and then you can prove me wrong. No more complaints about me, just provide the email.
August 8, 2007 at 6:53 pm
I don’t want to interfere in the little discussion above, but since the Permanent TSB pays a commercial rate for this report, then it is their business when they issue it, or not as the case may be.
However, back to the real world! Our good friends in the German Statistics office issued two very important statistics this morning. You can see the press releases, nos 312 & 311 on their website.
311 tells us that the German industrial engine purrs along nicely with exports up 11.9% on twelve months ago. The German trade balance for the first six month is only up 42% on the same period in 2006, €73Bn versus €51Bn.
312 advises that manufacturing in June 07 is 5.6% over June 06, and that it is 7.1% up for the six months of 2007.
There are however worrying signs regarding imported inflation via commodity prices. This will be an issue when the ECB comes to consider interest rates again for the €mark. The influence of increased consumer spending due to increased wages and increased numbers will also add to the upward pressure on interest rates.
Where will Irish house prices be when interest rates are 1% higher?
August 8, 2007 at 7:29 pm
0749
You may not have noticed, but when you leave a reply on this website, though you provide an email address it is not published. Our host has the decency to ensure our privacy.
I will certainly not break that policy by posting, on a public message forum, a personal email, including an email address – it may even be illegal for me to do so without the permission of the counter party.
It is completely irrelevant whether you believe me or not. And I’m sure the other users of this website are growing weary of this petty discussion. If you’re comfortable providing your email address publically, then do so and I’ll forward you a copy of the document detailing the PTSB/ESRI HPI methodology.
Other than that, you are perfectly at liberty to go to the ESRI website, find the contact’s email address and email him to confirm why the report is late yourself.
August 8, 2007 at 9:20 pm
Your right, people are probably tired of all this. But we now know where you are coming from…your bluff has been called. would have been simple to post the email with your email address exluded. Claiming it would have been “illegal” is silly and a weak attempt at providing cover. But anyway, we will move on. Say hi to all your friends at IP/TSB for me.
August 8, 2007 at 9:24 pm
Very interesting point Dogdays – it is easy to forget that the interest rates we will experience in Ireland have little or nothing to do with our economy but will be based on Germany/France/Italy. If you look back in recent history you will see that even in Germany rates during the normal economic cycle with the DM were topping out at 7%+. And considering the make-up of the Euro currency then it is unlikely that it will be less with it. The Germany economy is just getting going after years in recession, I hink you can add at least 2% on to current rates.
August 8, 2007 at 11:50 pm
To deal with the points raised, there are a small number of central € economies, Holland must be added to the three others mentioned above.
Only one of the four economies has personal debt problems, Holland. The Dutch rate is below the Irish rate, but is not growing while ours continues to leap forward at over 20% p.a. Italian personal debt is about 30% of Ireland and Germany is at 60% of our 2006 levels.
High € levels against the dollar are good news to these core economies as their imported commodities are priced in dollars. The German Government are in favour of a strong € which is not in Ireland’s interest. If £stg is also to decline against the € then much locally produced goods will also lose their UK markets.
Davy’s are estimating a $ rate of 1.40 next year
However a review I carried out on auctioneers suggests a pick up in July and early August. Prices may be below asking prices, but still suggest that there is money available if the right client walks in the door of the bank. There still is a demand for the “trophy” house at all levels. I looked at a house in Stamer St., agent Felicity Fox which went very quickly for far more than it was worth and have seen a number of other similar sales.
Rozza’s comment above his purchase in Marino is a reasonable example of the general market movement. However I am aware of a distressed sale close to him which ended up going for a good bit less – vendor had bought and needed the cash after the original buyer could not get a loan.
August 9, 2007 at 5:56 am
Essentially the Irish economy has had random interest rates since we adopted the euro. I know that is a crude way of putting it economically, but that is the gist of it. We are almost perfectly contraclycical to the core euro economies. So the amplitude of our economic cycle has been distored because of this. We got lower interest rates when the economy was booming, when we should have got higer rates to quell inflation. This made the boom wilder than any other seen but of course you dont realise it at the time because of the distorting effect of the cheap money. It is even more distorting because many core EU economies not only have lower debt levels but they are normally take on fixed rate loans. So there is less public complaint around rising rates.
The consequences on the other side of the business cycle are that we are going to have highter rates just as we need lower rates. The result is the downturn of a normal busines cycle will be mirror the abnornal highs we have experiences over the last decade. The housing market is the one of the main aspects of this as it is in part fueled by debt which was shovelled out at cheaper rates which created the inflationary bubble we have now. The strange truth is that we are metaphoically on a torture rack, the better the euro economies do then the higher rates will likely have to be raised over the coming years and the more pain it will inflict on the over indebted irish economy. So paradoxically we need the core euro economies to stagnate not prosper .
If nothing else it gives creedance to the argument that we should never have joined monetary union – we have little or nothing in common with the other euro countires. Dont get me wrong, I am all for the common trading bloc. But monetary union was a move too far, we are simply not integrated enough. When we joined the euro there was all those stories in the media about “price transparancy” and harmonisation etc.. as if by some miriacle the euro would bring about cheaper prices in Ireland. The truth is prices have diverged and I seem to remember reading that on the trade front we now do less trade with the euro economies now that we we joined and more with the US and UK.
August 9, 2007 at 8:30 am
“Say hi to all your friends at IP/TSB for me.”
LOL 400 years ago you would have been shouting “He denies it … burn the witch”. I provided legitimate and easily verifiable information and the best you can do is come on like some hysterical, latter-day witch-hunter.
And you then expect us to give credence to anything else you say?
All this because you want to trust fully in the PTSB/ESRI HPI, which is reporting less than 1% falls per month, when there is significant evidence to suggest that falls are indeed much bigger?
So, here’s a step by step guide that even you should be able to follow
1 Go to the ESRI website (www.esri.ie)
2 Go to the page for the HPI (www.esri.ie/irish_economy/permanent_tsbesri_house_p/)
3 Get the email address provided for queries about the index
4 Send an email asking why the report is late
5 While you’re at it ask for info on how the report is compiled
6 If you have the balls, come back here and apologise
If you can’t even do this, then stop trying to pretend you can add anything intelligent to this or any other debate on house prices.
August 9, 2007 at 11:48 am
To 0740
“Essentially the Irish economy has had random interest rates since we adopted the euro”
You are absolutely right in your assessment. A major problem for the Irish economy was the low interest rates combined with a booming economy in the late 90s and early 00s. This failed utterly to check inflation and especially fed the housing frenzy. With no oversight in Ireland – this had been surrendered with the euro agreement- prices just spun out of control. In fact, this was one of the main reasons cited by British economic voices as a reason for them not joining in. Now we have a situation where we have a slowing economy with rising interest rates – economic madness.
As for housing, this is having a direct effect on the market. We will see falling prices as money tightens and buyers become even more scarce. There is no “pent up” demand – never mind the latest spin. Many investors own more than two home and when they all come on board to be offloaded we will see a serious glut. Look at the latest figures from Daftwatch – twice as many homes on the market as there were a few months ago.
August 9, 2007 at 12:01 pm
Here’s what’s happened in Blubell Woods, Oranmore, over last 12 months. Estate consists largely of 5 bed detached. Houses touched E550 early last Summer. Since then:
2 houses put on market by owner occupiers and withdrawn subsequently
2 housess put on market by investors and then withdrawn
2 houses put on market by occupiers who had bought elsewhere, then withdrawn and rented out
1 house sold early Spring, asking price E480
1 house sold recently for less then E500
1 house on the market since November asking E530
1 house on the market since February asking E450
All the above houses are 5 bedroom detached, while there are some minor variations in house design they are basically similar. The house asking E450 is almost opposite the shops. Nonetheless, it’s clear things are pretty awful.
Am getting tired of the slagging on the site, but remain deeplyi suspicious of PTSB report’s lateness.
August 9, 2007 at 3:32 pm
“Thank you for your email.
Please be advised that the latest House Price Index for June and July will be released tomorrow and will be displayed on our website early next week.
Please let me know if you have any further queries.
Kind Regards”
I emailed them, they emailed back v promptly.
August 10, 2007 at 5:06 pm
This has gone from 520k to 490k to 450 since Nov last. Will it hit 410k
http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=31710&page=392
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?search=1&selected_agent=&id=104009&s%5Bagent_id%5D=595&s%5Bp%5D=rprqxuvs
August 13, 2007 at 1:46 am
The ESRI have a date of 10 August on their latest report but the report only covers valuations up to the end of June. I thought they had already posted the valuations for June as part of their previous report at the beginning of July. Am I correct in this?
http://www.esri.ie/irish_economy/permanent_tsbesri_house_p/