Sorry for the delay but I have finally got around to completing the analysis of the 11 previous myhome reports.
Please see the summary statistics
I was also asked in a previous post to include stats for analysis for Swords and Malahide
Swords
109 properties dropped price.
2 dropped the price 3 times
28 dropped the price twice
Initial Listing Value =€45,953,000
Final Listed Value =€43,926,000
Total Drop= 4.4%
Malahide
45 properties dropped the price
3 dropped the price 3 times.
8 dropped the price twice.
Initial Listing Value =€41,336,500
Final Listed Value =€38,448,000
Total Drop= 7%
August 10, 2007 at 7:31 am
Excellent work – you should set up a paypal account we can contribute a few euros towards a few pints for all your hard work.
August 10, 2007 at 8:28 am
Thanks again for these great reports!
One useful addition though would be to show the number and value of ALL houses listed on myhome too, that way we could work out the average price change across all properties, not just those which dropped.
August 10, 2007 at 10:30 am
BAKED BUTTERNUT SQUASH
Wash 2 Butternut squashes, split them in half, and remove seeds. Coat the meat thickly with butter and sprinkle with sugar, salt and pepper to taste and a little ground ginger. Arrange cut side up in a shallow baking pan in 1 inch of water. Bake them in a moderate oven (350 degree) for about 1 hour or until they are brown and very tender when tested with a fork. Serve with the shell.
August 10, 2007 at 10:51 am
Great report. Some information about the period covered would be a nice addition though. I guess it’s “since we started until now”, but still…
August 10, 2007 at 11:35 am
a very nice receipe…..a tad off the matter at hand, but no matter I am sure they are lovely. Funny figures in the IP/TSB June Report, the headline figure is a .5% fall but they say houses in Dublin fell 1.3% in June and outside Dublin fell .9% in the same month. So how do they come out with a .5% overall fall. Surely it should be 1.2%ish or so. They are still clinging to the year-on-year figures – although as predicted by someone on this board they will drop them soon as they to turn negative.
August 10, 2007 at 4:21 pm
ESRI has not given the figures for JULY though?
Whats that about?
August 10, 2007 at 10:33 pm
Isn’t it funny that Mr.Niall O’Grady – who commented the current report (thanks for this however) – is actually Head of Marketing for TSB ? I’d never trust a sales man.
August 11, 2007 at 11:26 am
The Dublin figures do not appear to have a separate category for Dublin 6? Are these included in the Dublin 6W figures?
(Excellent analysis by the way – thanks for the work).
August 11, 2007 at 11:41 am
Can someone tell me what the difference is between “sale agreed” and sold? I have been watching a house in Clonliffe Gdns which has been listed on Daft since May as “sale agreed” but has not come off the Daft listing yet. Would this indicate that the mortgage not gone to closure and if not, does this indicate a problem with getting the house finally sold? Are we seeing serious signs of financing problems?
August 12, 2007 at 9:02 am
“Sale agreed” refers to an accepted offer. However in the current market, there can be a number of reasons for a delay,
a) the person buying is also a seller and is having problems disposing of their existing home.
b) the buyer is having problems organising the finance.
c) the surveyor’s report has raised issues, e.g. an extension not fully in compliance with planning or by-laws.
d) Some problem over title.
August 13, 2007 at 6:29 am
The belief that the recent market “turmoil” is going to hold back interest rate rises from the ECB may be misguided in fact it may lead to higher interest rates. The ECB does not set interest rates per se, they merely set what they believe should be the target rate. The market sets the interest rates – however, the ECB – and all other central banks – are so big in the market that they can define the rate.Few can challenge the ECB as they effecitvely “produce” the money and can flood the market. That is what happened last week, although few economic commentators in Ireland really explained this.
Short term euro rates were rising rapidly and reached approximately 4.6%, that is .6% above what the ECB want it to be. They then flooded the market with money at 4% – offering the banks as much as they wanted at that rate. This drove rates back down to 4.1% because they were in all but name subsidising the markets.
This turmoil may all evaporate over the coming weeks and they may be no more pressure upwards on rates. But there is also an argument to make that if pressure on short-term rates continues upwards that the ECB will be keen to raise rates to 4.25% to keep in line with the markets and remove the disparity between what they think rates shoudl be and what the market does. It is interesting tha the ECB came in twice last week – which shows that the market was willing to assert itself.
The sub-prime woes are not over – in fact very few banks have really revealed what their expsoure is. I would like to know what the exposure of Spanish, Greek, Italian etc banks are?
There is a interesing circularity to this story as it is weak US housing loans that are affecting European rates now. One wonders what will happend if Irish loans start to go bad because rates rise- and who are holding them. They will no doubt have been “repackaged” and sold off to others. Sub-prime is a such a loose definition referring to lending money to weak borrowing. But what is worse, lending 100K to someone in Kansas who cannot afford the repayments or lending 400,000 Euros to someone in Dublin to buy a one-bed roomed apartment? They may afford it at 3% but can they at 6%. Any views on this out there?
August 13, 2007 at 8:30 am
0749
I think at this point reports that the ECB may not impose another 0.25% next month is just another futile form of trying to talk the market up to add to the long list of verbal muck out there. I listened with interest at a guy being interviewed on the radio this morning (a former employyee of the US Fed Reserve) who mentioned that prior to a crash in US house prices the market was stating a SOFT LANDING, followed by A WEAKENING IN THE MARKET followed by it there is a CRASH IT WILL only be a SHORT TERM SCENARIO and look where we are now with the US housing market in turmoil but the point is where have we heard the above statements before? I wonder.
Also if we look at the number of SUB Prime lenders who have entered the Irish Market in the last year what does that tell you about what the banks feel is going to happen down the line in Ireland with the like of PTSB AND IIB having ownership of some of these sub prime institutions? I back this up with the point that some of the major banks in this country sold off their branch network buildings over the last year or so which should have signaled the top of the market.
So it looks like a case of if someone defaults on a IPTSB loan they will pass them on to their sub prime lender or if its IIB they will do likewise but only giving the client best advice and having fleeced them once they get a secong opportunity, this borrowing will then be securitised on the market and someone else will be left holding the baby rather than the Irish banks i.e. the sheepish buyer who followed the flock along with some bank Asia.
Who said the Celtic tiger is dead, hes actually alive and well and eating his young.
August 13, 2007 at 12:21 pm
September rise of 25bp is a done deal. The crisis will not effect that. interest rate futures are trading around 4.5%. Forget about what the VI say in news reports. Forget about the reporters, in Ireland they are very poor quality and further, they are usually aligned to the VI. The Interest Rate futures are the bets on interest rates for future dates. In order to make a bet you must put your money on the table. If somebody puts their money down, you can take their word for it. Pencil in a .25% rate increase for Setember and stop the sillyness.
August 13, 2007 at 5:48 pm
See the following from Finfacts
http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_1010788.shtml
It’s happening already. A serious slowdown in output and “negative sentiment”. Hand on to your seatbelts.
August 13, 2007 at 8:47 pm
Will report No. 12 be with us shortly?
August 16, 2007 at 10:40 am
@0749 – interesting post. have C&P’d it to global house price crash..
How ya dont mind but its worth spreading.
regards