Latest Drops
Over the period 22th February to the 19th March there 2,531 price drops and the average drop was €25,953 or 6.6%.
The 2,531 properties reduced the price by €67million in total.
The number of drops per day was 97.
Report available in html and excel formats.
Overall Drops
11,075 properties have now dropped the price at least once an increase of 891 since the last report. This report is available in excel format.
Analysis of the overall drops is provided by
Removals and New Listings
The stock of unsold properties has increased significantly in the last 4 weeks. Both in terms of the absolute number for sale and the number of months of supply.
Based on the latest removal statistics it will take over 12 months to clear the existing properties for sale if no new properties were listed. New listings are currently out stripping removals by a factor of 50% this has lead to an overall increase in the number of properties for sale of 2,459 or nearly 100 every day.
Roscommon and Cavan have the largest overhang with 2 years supply worth of properties currently listed.
The average time on the market increased slightly again to 156 days from 154 4 weeks ago. 1 in 7 properties for sale have now been on the market for more than 1 year while over 50% of all properties have been on the market for more than 6 months.
This report is available in html format.
March 21, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Thank you IPW for the latest data extract. Slicing’n'Dicing the data at the moment, preliminary findings show very clear relationship between DAYS_ON_MARKET and CHANGE when you map all previous data extracts accumulations. Also, for others interested in the data burst presented on this site, myself and a few guys working on mapping external economic local and global factors in an attempt to identify a perceived emerging trend between the Irish economy and Global issues and how this may be impacting the Irish Property market. It’s challenging but interesting work. We’ll be posting our data findings to various sites with supporting rationale to assist those interesting in understanding our approach to analysis of the data and the relationship to external inputs. This will hopefully silence the spin doctors who got vested interests in preserving inflated property prices in Ireland – banks and central bank comments included!
March 22, 2008 at 2:45 pm
News that the Financial Regulator is chasing up Bearish opinions should not be regarded as unalloyed good news, because apart from impinging on free speech, it can be used selectively in favour of Bullish opinions to support a highly-priced property market, something that has been done effectively, with the connivance of the government and all those who stand to gain from inflated house prices, for many years.
March 22, 2008 at 7:22 pm
Yeap a cover-up attempt by the CB and Gov. Yes, it may be true the main banks in Ireland do not have a direct exposure to sub-prime but indirectly they may have taken positions. Either way, I honestly cannot see the banks passing down the full ECB rate cut to their mortgage holders. I reckon they retain the cut to help massage loan book exposures, they’ll hike credit card interest rates and associated charges and already adopting a tighter lending criteria for new mortgages, personal loans and commercial lending. The sum of the parts = a much tighter lending environment. As regards the Regulator monitoring ‘rumours’ spreading about certain banks, this really relates to traders buying up stocks of the ‘rumoured’ troubled banks, i.e. Anglo. Once the likes of these rumours gather legs, its hard to control the situation. Investors dump their stocks, the stock price becomes even more depressed and hence the ‘rogue’ traders are hoovering up the now depressed stocks at inexpensive share prices. The Regulator chit chatten to the FSA in the UK to id trends.
March 25, 2008 at 6:52 pm
Had been trying to buy a house since 2005. The prices of property were climbing like crazy with the estate agents hiking the prices based on demand. At one stage, decided that this hike is very artificial and cannot sustain. While people were compelling me to get into the property market before it is too much and property bubble in Ireland will not burst as they have been on caution on property bubble burst since 2002. Few of them went for second house retaining the first house as a rental source. It is hard for people to realise that the prices cannot be climbing up to an unaffordable level. The important thing to know is whether the prices are smoothing off as indicated by a few or prices are in crash. If it is a crash, which year prices are likely to get down to?
March 25, 2008 at 7:58 pm
In Detroit prices have halved to an average of $22,000 yes 22 not 220 thats what a real recession does. The value of properety is what you can sell it for, not what you think it should be, With the current property stalemate in Ireland and the coming uk crash which will pull even more money out of the Irish market. No one really can tell try zear zero . Nothing will sell as there will be no buyers in a real fall.
March 26, 2008 at 12:02 am
I can’t envisage property prices falling by 50% this is a bit OTT. 30 to 40% worst case scenario is my humble opinion. Certainly 20% is on the cards as we speak and this will become even more obvious as the traditional Spring or early Summer shifting of houses fails to get off the ground. Sad part about this type of situation is the Estate Agents have vendors scared to drop their price too far even though this is precisely what you have to do now if you are deadly serious about wanting to sell your house. The question I think vendors need to seriously ask themselves right now is can they afford to not take the decision to seriously drop their asking price. IF they don’t drop now, they will definitely end up selling at some point in the future for even less than they really want to achieve right at this moment in time. Personally, I think the Estate Agents are a big big part of the problem. Think about it, would you relish the thoughts of going to work each day to loose 20% or more off your stock prices – nope you wouldn’t – it is not fun but hey, thats the markets. Markets rise aswell as fall, property markets are no different to the equity or alternative markets, you through the dice and play your cards. Those with a brain and common sense would be best advised to ignore their Estate Agents BS greed advice and off load your house at a price you feel happy to walk away at, its that simply.
March 26, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Now, more than ever, is the time to demand that this government do something honest for a change and make house transactions transparent, as they are in the UK. Then and only then will people like Kart have the kind of information they need and are entitled to. It is also one way to circumvent the chicanery of estate agents who in Ireland are the most egregious of any of the parties involved in bringing Ireland’s housing situation to its current sorry state.
March 26, 2008 at 7:23 pm
Can anybody tell me who I can report evidence of corrupt practice activities involving estate agents, do I go to the press, do I go legal, what should I do?
March 26, 2008 at 8:59 pm
I think it would be best to air this comment on
http://www.thepropertypin.com/
You will get the best advice on this forum
March 27, 2008 at 8:20 am
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1be67d34-fb5e-11dc-8c3e-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
some prices are 60% down on new homes in Spain. four years now to sell a beach property!!!! average hosue prices 142K …….was there in 2003 in Almeria, 2 bed apt £180k now 50-100k depending on location.
Are we gonna follow? I mean would you pay 200-250k for a studio apt in Dublin now? 32 sqm over 25yr mortgage?
Just saying
March 28, 2008 at 12:56 am
Thank you KD. I’ve made contact with an investigative journalist, he is very interested in my story and we meet next week to explain what I came across by accident.
March 28, 2008 at 1:40 am
Rachel, one of the best things you could do is to give all details of the corrupt estate agent to this site, leaving out all names and addresses. Such information is crucial to those of us who are trying to rid the system of liars and crooks.
March 29, 2008 at 12:37 am
Home prises are in free fall here in the US. Baltimore has seen almost 50% reduction in some areas. No one is buying and many sellers are taking their properties off the market. Problem is many who bought in the past year or so are stuck with homes worth less than their mortgages. The actual selling prices of those that are selling are way down.
One of the problems for Ireland as I see it is the lack of information on selling prices. Homes are still being listed at insane prices but if no one knows that the selling price is the facade of high prices can be maintained for some time. This is where the estate agents can cover up the fall. Eventually however even the listing prices will have to reflect market forces.
March 29, 2008 at 9:51 am
I think its time to start making under bids on property, If each of us bid on 10 properties that relfect a cross section of the market and publish results we may get raw data to use. I see a one bed on myhome in mountjoy square now at 200k from 235k , perhapa a bid of 140K (shared risk i mean , market is slowing and buyer sholdnt take all the risk) and at 140k its not bad!!!! ill go with this and see the reaction
hey Ill try record the conversations lol (no point being an engineer for nothing)
March 29, 2008 at 12:16 pm
We made an offer on a house in the Balydoyle / Portmarnock area, a secondhand house in the Castlerosse development. We’ve been monitoring the length of time houses of interest to us are actually on the market and any prices movements. We are cash buyers, with a loan approval in writing based on a loan to value ratio less than 50% so we are ZERO risk and the perfect buyers estate agents want at the moment. We put an offer in at €65k less than asking, we feel this more accurately reflects the realistic price but the estate agent became hostile and actually quite rude. No sooner did we hang up the phone but she came back to say the seller rejected our offer and insisted at least the advertised asking. So we approached the sellers privately, explained our financial position, we were honest and told the couple we offerred €65k below asking and they said they didn’t even hear about our offer from the estate agent. As it turns out, the couple are on bridging and in a very difficult financial situation and want to close ASAP now. We got into a bargaining conversation and agreed on a price which was €50k less than asking. They fired the estate agent this week, they gave us their solicitors details and we swapped ours and the sale is now moving towards conclusion within next 10 days! So I guess we are living testiment to what can be achieved if you take the estate agent out of the picture. Funny, the sellers were telling us that the estate agent was asking them to sit tight and the market will bounce April / May and mortgage rate cutes were looming. This sort of commentry just goes to the heart of the problem, the estate agents are all about vested interests, talk up the market, whip up a frenzy in the sellers minds and raise expectations to unrealistic levels. I simply just understand why on earth other sellers have not realised a big reason why they can’t shift their property is because the estate agent is holding out for offers which are just not out there anymore. The market has moved on and now in a downward trend. If is was selling a house these days, I would sell it myself, use eBay and the web in general – you can’t get a bigger caption audience than the web. Spread word of mouth, use internal work email and intranet to advertise. If you are prepared to swallow pride and deal with the issue at hand which is to just get ride of a house then you can achieve a quick sale, at a price you are reasonably happy with and cut out the estate agent and their inflated fees (lets face it, they are not a professional bunch at all, car salesmen is how I class the majority of estate agents, they can’t even come up with an accurate market price). Anyhow, just thought we’d share our experiences from this week.
Our advise – FIRE YOUR ESTATE AGENT and sell your house yourself.
March 29, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Anany…your offer on ONLY 50K below asking sounds risky to me in this market. These prices are going nowhere but down for the next few years. What percentage of a markdown did the 50K represent? The Estate Agettns – in spite of their best efforts at lying and deceit- cannot hold this fall. Buying right now is risky and especially buying with just a small markdown is very very risky.
March 29, 2008 at 7:18 pm
It represented just over 16% and take your point about the slide downwards but we got extremely low loan to value ratio relative to most out there and can withstand further slide. We take the long term view, the value will come back maybe in 6 or 8 years time but it will come back perhaps not to the same extent but it will come back. We are happy with our purchase and the sellers were thankful we approached them.
March 30, 2008 at 12:03 pm
How many more ‘Anonymouses’ does there have to be before one of you calls himself/herself ‘Anonymous 1, 2, etc’? The trouble is that ‘Anonymous’ is not that ingenious a moniker.
March 30, 2008 at 12:33 pm
I have to say I agree with Alterkocker, it can be difficult o follow a thread at times.
March 30, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Reliable word from FF grass roots the party preparing to make major announcement next week that Bertie is stepping down. Plenty of political posters who in the know been posting on http://www.politics.ie and the website just been pulled off the air this afternoon following some of the threads which were developing. No smoke without fire?
March 30, 2008 at 5:36 pm
WOW! What the EA’s going to do now that their fav political party on the ropes?
March 30, 2008 at 5:47 pm
So what if Bertie leaving. If is not going to affect the property market is it?!
Bottomline, I think most punters out there know FF and big business go together like a glove and hand. Maybe they are the BIGGEST VI in the country so if the Gov goes on like this then I guess the EA’s, the builders, the solicitors, the institutions and so on see nothing wrong with this situation. Although all of these warm fuzzy relationships smack of non-compliance to EU law and standards in business, unethical deals being cut weekly. Thats the game people, fool sif you think otherwise.
March 30, 2008 at 10:56 pm
Sorry about the previous Anonymous posting re the 50K discount being risky. I was advising that the amount was not enough in a falling market. Fault is my own computer – it usually gives me my “Beal” name in the name box but for some reason if i switch off my laptop completely the “Beal” disappears from the box and I don’t notice until after I post. If the box is empty the default is “anonymous”. Will try to watch it.
March 31, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Rember though that in the past, the more dirt thyat came out on Bertie, the more FF support surged and opposition party plummeted. That’s the Irish public for you
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