The number of drops per day reached a new high of 130 per day.
Over the period 30th March to the 6th April 2008 there were 912 price drops and the average drop was €20,516 or 5.8%. Over the same period there were 70 price increases. The average increase was €46,264 or 11.5%.
The 912 properties reduced the price by €20.5million in total.
The 71 properties increased the price by €3.2million in total.
April 8, 2008 at 9:28 am
Just wondering if it’s possible to get teh latest report in Excel format?
April 8, 2008 at 9:34 am
One can only assume that the 71 increases is a desperately organized scam – probably properties sacrificed from the market under the influence of the EA and their ilk, or owned by them without any intention to sell, in order to give the impression that the tide is turning in favour of those who want ludicrously high prices to continue. Owners of these absurdly further inflated properties would have nothing to lose, bar the unlikelihood of their selling at this time. One must constantly bear in mind that there are no depths to which Irish estate agents will not lower themselves, there being in a class of their own, even among the species.
April 8, 2008 at 10:05 am
Hear! Hear! Alterkocker. I like this kind of vitriol and bile on my mid-morning break
April 8, 2008 at 10:34 am
I’m playing the long game. I am waiting this one out and will come back into the market when I see definitely real value. No value in the market now.
By the way, I’m a property speculator and given the current prices versus rental yields and their likely srinking, people like me just see no value in buying investment properties. Lending rates are the wrong value, rents are not sufficient to cover the loans, the capital depreciation (sliding property value) risk is too great.
Only an idiot would buy property under these circumstances.
Buddy of mine has lettings on the Shannon, jumped in with both feet, lossing his nuts now, hard to let and when he does get a letting its for short periods and not enough cash coming in to cover the loan amounts. He can’t sell the damn properties cause €’000 wiped off their value with the nose dive.
This is the reality out there and it is getting worse. Another lad I know through my company has had a receiver appointed to protect Anglo’s and BoS’s interests on a number of properties they provided commercial loans against.
It’s gone pear shaped for a lot of investors who jumped in too late, i.e. anyone who jumped in within the last 3 – 5 yrs. is most likely hurting or about to feel pain, particularly if their interest only loans now reverted to standard interest plus principal. Properties devalued and now paying mortgages on inflated loan amounts, in other words, negative equity situations.
April 8, 2008 at 12:12 pm
Roger – if you scroll over the “price drops” link and open the page you can just select all and copy and then just paste it into an excel worksheet.
IPW – great website by the way, really helpfull for potential first time buyer.
April 8, 2008 at 1:02 pm
It’s like they’re trying to close the stable door after the horse has bolted!”
National Irish Bank’s quarterly report on the economy says house prices have almost ‘bottomed out’ and that sales activity will return to normal in the second half of the year.
NIB’s economist Ronnie O’Toole, author of the bank’s report, says the housing market in bigger cities will recover quicker than rural parts of the country.
‘While supply continues to retrench, there are signs that housing demand might finally be stabilising,’ Dr O’Toole said.
April 8, 2008 at 3:28 pm
Could this be the last kick of a dead dog, or a genuine sign of a turn about???
April 8, 2008 at 7:05 pm
Ask yourselves why Dr. O’Toole at the NIB has published this report?
The NIB like all of the banks are very concerned of the domino effects generated by a slowdown in the Irish property market and the impacts this places on the banking systems.
NIB even go further and state (not claim, but actually state):
“The report also says that the decline in the housing industry has continued on from the sharp fall of last year, with mortgage lending, house prices, housing registrations and housing completions all set for more sharp falls in 2008.”
Confused?
You should be!
You see the banks are playing the clever game of spin to present a perceived recovery and bounce within the housing market.
Nothing could be further from the reality. The Central Bank recently commented:
“The Central Bank says that the slowdown in the housing sector is also starting to impact on the Irish economy.”
So, politically and economically there are massive vested interests such as the banks, estate agents, economists and the Government attempting to kick-start a return to hyper inflated housing prices.
Ask yourselves, Whats in it for theses vested interests?
You will immediately realise the high stake spin strategy these powerful groups are attempting to impose upon free market conditions.
Consumer confidence is bear, sentiments are sunning high amongst those thinking of selling or buying houses under the current climate of uncertainty.
So these VE’s are attempt to reintroduce certainty . . . certainty that the house prices will rise again. So they spin this story line to whip up a semi-frenzy within buyers minds, so buyers are duped into thinking houses prices have bottomed out and may be set to rise in the future. So, obviously, the buyers jump back into the market immediately, fearing future price hikes. And so the magic wheel of rip-off Republic continues and we ALL end up paying the price.
Hold firm . . . do not buy in 2008, wait and see what 2009 presents. Remember the global economy is volatile at present and Ireland is heavily exposed.
And for those out there with a wedge of cash and you feel you need to invest in property, don’t buy in Ireland, N.Irl or UK. Seriously look overseas, Dubai, South America, China, France or even eastern Europe. Good value in certain US states and Canada to a certain extent. Tax issues prevail but can be addressed within the law, yields are excellent but you got to invest for say 15 – 20 yrs. to reap the rewards!
April 8, 2008 at 7:24 pm
Can someone post the links to the other websites and forms dedicated to monitoring the Irish housing market.
Thanks. And great work IPW, I’m surprised you ain’t under a witness protection program at this stage
April 9, 2008 at 10:20 am
O‘Toole states that a reduction of 3.9% to 2.9% is mere economic readjustment, not a ‘reversal’ – which most of us will nevertheless continue to read as a ‘decrease heading towards collapse’. In O’Toolspeak, a company going bust is merely economically readjusting itself, as opposed to being in ‘reversal’.
If an increase of personal spending occurs as he forecasts, it will be spent on one-way tickets on a ship leaving for somewhere else.
Regarding idiottje’s reference to a dead dog. The dog is not dead but terminally diseased and twitching as its nerves necrose. Its prognosis is for the most painful symptoms to yet come, among them delirium, much lachrymosity and gnashing of teeth, intense pain and an unconscionable amount of shitting.
O’Toole is like a man in the water after the ship has gone down, he looks in vain for a raft and has just remembered he cannot swim, so he starts praying but unfortunately he immediately starts lying to an all-knowing god.
April 9, 2008 at 11:37 pm
I work in the motor trade (main dealership – brand will remain unknown) but in our business new and second hand car sales have come to a near standstill now. I know of 5 guys let go from a dealership in Swords (all were mechanics) and our place is looking at letting a bunch of guys go aswell.
I got a sister working for Sherry Fitz and they not letting people go at the moment but those that leave or retire or whatever are no being replaced but she heard from one of the main guys in there that if things don’t improve during the second half, job cuts are likely! Sign of the times I guess.
April 10, 2008 at 1:51 am
Can someone comment on the fact that in Ireland there is no public information available on actual sales figures? I live in the US where all this is public info – I have seen comments on this site before on this but I would like to know if any pressure is being brought to bear on this?
Is anyone in a responsible or public position – press etc. demanding that the public be given the actual sales figures? This would appear to be a basic right in any democratic economy. Heck, the agents can list homes for X knowing full well that X – 30% or even 50% is going to be the final sales figure. It seems to be me that as long as these sales figures remain hidden any amount of falsehoods and misinformation can thrive for some time before reality sets in.
What law protects the agents from this disclosure?
On that score, this is great work being done here by IPW.
April 10, 2008 at 9:03 am
Beal, watch this space. I believe this issue is being checked out with various authorities and legal opinion is being sought. I agree with you entirely. The non-disclosure has resulted in market manipulation and sharp tactics by estate agents. A number of investigative journalists have exposed the problems in the past and I understand investigations are ongoing. The problem faced is trying to gather the evidence, build a case and present the facts. Cartel activities are alleged which have contributed to sustained high residential property market prices. Political climate is right to break this news and seek political support.
April 10, 2008 at 10:41 am
re Beal. A number of us have ‘campaigned’ in this column for transparency of transactions but it will not happen. Letters to the newspapers expressing a need for it do not get published because there exists a very wide conspiracy between government, the press and all those with a vested interest in high prices, to keep people in total darkness. This country invented ’shenanigans’ and shenanigans are by nature recondite. Add that to a lack of courage and will to demonstrate by the majority of a people who are not renowned for sustained protest of any kind, and you can see why the government will not disclose information that they see might hurt their coffers in any way.
A government in a state like this should be easy to pressure, but insufficient force exists to bring about the pressure. There are countless issues, at least as important as house prices, which need to be addressed but the closest most concerned people get to bringing about a change is to cry into their expensive glass of beer. That, I am sorry to say, is the reality.
The rest is simply bulsh.
April 10, 2008 at 11:06 am
Brendan, that’s interesting I’ve noticed over the last few months, and was only saying to some friends recently, how many olds cars (5 years are more) there are on the roads (certainly relative to new ones). I recall around 96/97 when the number of new cars on the road relative to old was really high. It really feels like things have turned 180 degrees. We got through the financial crisis of 98 OK, survived the tech crash of 01 (although it ravaged the IT industry in Ireland) – I’m sure we’ll get through the next 2 or 3 years, they may be tough years but we will be fine.
April 10, 2008 at 12:52 pm
All very valid points.
Regardless of the Irish Economy. With inflation as it is in the Eurozone, ther is little chance they will lower interest rates anytime soon. With the credit crunch on top of that it is only matter of time before Irish lenders and unable to provide the types of amounts they were lending to buy houses.
Look at the UK today, the BoE lowered interest rates but some lenders were putting theirs up. With some major lenders such as HBOS demanding 20-25% deposits. Apparently in the UK now you have to have a near perfect credit rating or they are not interested.
That on the back of the large majority of people coming out of fixed rates in the UK and Ireland means that there are tough times ahead. When the IMF release reports like they did this week it sheds some truth on the real situaiton. Why do people keep getting duped by the “fake” reporting from the bank reps. Thats like having the mother of the the man who mudered your partner represent you in court lol.
No wonder Bertie went when he did, hes not stupid!
April 10, 2008 at 1:09 pm
I agree with most of the comments above, but I do think that certain parts of the Dublin market are moving again. I would suggest that areas close to town, say Phibsoborough, Cabra & Marino on the Northside and Dublin 8 & 12 areas on the Southside are selling.
The houses that are selling are at the lower end of the market, say under €600,000, but particularly under €450,000. However I understand that nearly 50% of offers are falling through because of the inability to get loans, even where provisionally approved.
Mammy & Daddy are coming up with some fairly substantial deposits and ensuring that their children get the lower LTV rates, as well as going guarantor on the mortgage.
However for anyone without parents getting lump sums, it is a very different market from the banks.
It may be down to location, location & location plus a price drop to sell.
April 10, 2008 at 9:27 pm
According to the AIB Housing Market Monitor report published today -
“Some of the March 2008 weakness (new properties completed) may well reflect the early Easter which is likely to have depressed activity in the month,” said the report. “The very poor March weather conditions may also have been a factor.”
Blaming the Easter Bunny now!, how patently desperate!. And if it’s not the Bunny, then it must be the weather. Begone Bunnies and bad weather, we want to just keep riding Joe Public for another while
April 11, 2008 at 11:08 am
Very interesting article in the UK times yesterday, with an even more interesting chart for predicting the potential amount property values will fall. The chart can also be viewed online (by clicking on the link on the article). Unfortunately the chart details only UK and US data….. I’d love to see one for the Irish market! Can anyone do this?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article3716586.ece
April 11, 2008 at 1:15 pm
FT yesterday, Ireland was top of the over valued housing list, compiled by te IMF with Netherlands next (based on unsupported economic reasons for increases) our prices were 30% over as of this year. US in recession with grow at 0.5% this year. So these price increase I see above, whats the story with this scam eh? Ride out the storm! be worth it. I mean u save 100k on a place, and put it into your pension (a low risk one ok) that will work out to 400K differential for you…..(ie one loses u 200k the other gives u200k) and its been 5 yrs since i had that play cash , sadly….:(
but ill be back (divorced single dad )
April 11, 2008 at 6:05 pm
That is excellent advice mikeyb.
I work for a firm of pension fund managers. Obviously, we monitor the various indices in Europe, Asia anf of course the US. We collect data from a variety of trusted sources.
The article in yesterday’s Financial Times hits home.
It is absolutely reckless for most potential buyers to actually engage in the Irish house market under the current climate. The risks are so great. You should also completely ignore some of the media reports from certain quarters that suggest there are signs of activity coming back to the market.
It’s hard to explain in text, but if I were to plot you a graph depicting the house price trend over the past 12/18 month period you will see a downward trend but with one or two positive peaks. These positive peaks occur following certina perceived positive news hitting the market. However, the gains are not sustained and what you actually notice is the extent of negative downward drop goes deeper (or further downward) than was previous observed prior to the positive input. And so the trend graph demonstrates a continuing downward direction.
The last positive peak happended within the past 3 week, where the media and certain interested parties alleged signs of a recovery in the market. So the graph peaked upwards marginally. BUT guess what? Now the graph I’ve plotted shows a deepening. In other words, with every suggest recovery there is a much deeper negative impact.
The housing market is most definitely highly overpriced and well respected external analysts are on record on this point.
I certainly would suggest to people to try and resist the temptation to buy this year. If you don’t really need to buy then don’t. Obviously there are families out there who really must buy and this is fine. But aside from this category of buyer I believe extensive price falls will be realised over H2 and into Q1/2 2009.
That gentleman (mikeyb) is quite correct. The money you will save yourself buy not buying now will yield far more attractive rewards on the long term through a pension and AVC’s. Equities are taking a hemmering at the moment anad this is impacting on pensions but this is a short term problem. Over the fullness of time your pensions will perform and deliver the desired benefits. This is the best free advice you will get. Don’t buy this year and sit this storm out. House prices will definitely fall much further over the coming months and possibly years. How can I be so certain, well thats because value is not there yet (real value).
The estate agents and banks will publish all sorts of spin reports which will suggest a return to rising house prices. This is simply tactics.
April 11, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Everyone should visit this You Tube podcast clip about the property market, it is largely US and UK focused but nevertheless it explains exactly what is going on in the property markets and what we can expect to happen here in Ireland.
April 11, 2008 at 11:02 pm
Sean, do you have access to Irish sales prices? I though only the revenue and CSO has these?
April 12, 2008 at 8:59 am
The fund managers I work for are part of a leading bank and mortgage lender, so we have access to actual purchase price and can relate back market asking price, hence the differential is clear and we can make various informed assumptions on the market.
April 12, 2008 at 11:56 am
Very interesting site. I have been researching the Uk property crash of the 90’s (when I actually had an investment property there), and the data is very interesting, showing a drop of 28% over three years, the a recovery of this over the next three. This was in the wake of the ERM crash, and my mortgage rate went from 8% to 17% in two weeks !
If we beleive everything that is being said about the Irish markets, then half the country will be bankrupt !
April 12, 2008 at 11:59 am
The falls were 90 – 95, with a bounce in 94, thren recovery over 96 – 99.
April 12, 2008 at 1:13 pm
I work within the commercial insurance industry. We have noticed a definite increase in the amount of requests to offer receivership insurance where builders and property speculators have defaulted on their portfolio repayments. They simply can’t sell the properties and the potential rental income will be insufficient to match mortgage repayment amount. I’m talking here about large portfolio’s of apartments, duplex, townhouses and 3 bed terraced, semi and detached type properties. Mostly in the greater Dublin area and within the Dublin commuter belt regions. Insurance reinstatement values up to say €550.000 on any given property. Obviously the market resale values will be higher than the insurance reinstatement cost.
This is a very clear indicator of the extent of financial difficulties the builders and speculators are in right now. The commercial lenders are calling in those loans now. We are being approached with requests to insure properties on behalf of receivers every week or two now. Each time, we are presented with a portfolio of about 25 to 50 properties. This is not being reported in main stream press. The problems are out there and it is very unfortunate for those building companies faced with such a crisis. As regards the speculator syndicates, well I think greed clouded their sense of perspective.
April 12, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Don’t just sit there boasting and teasing, Sean. If you have access to sales prices, you have a moral duty to your fellow man to publish them. Give them anonymously if you are afraid of repercussions. This is a site that aims to present honest facts for altruistic reasons. Help it out, man!
April 12, 2008 at 5:27 pm
It’s not that straight forward Alterkocker. If I were to release that sort of data (a) the institution involved (my employer) can esily be identified and (b) I’ll be fired
Note to mention corporate privacy violations and IP address logging to identify the source of the leak.
Just believe me, the data speaks volumes and our data feeds into the CSO.
Sean is an alias obviously because of the highly sensitive nature of this subject matter.
April 12, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Keep the head down Sean, no-one wants you to lose you job!
How ever it is interesting that a lot of people who have this data (Banks etc) are still promoting the ‘It’s a great time to buy’ nonsense.
April 13, 2008 at 1:21 pm
Whats the chances of a 70% fall in property prices as in Japan in the early 90’s?
David Williams called it right when he wrote about “property porn”. What is wrong with us that we lost the plot despite booms busting everywhere they ever happened.
Does anybody remember laughing at the phrase “but the demographics are different
in Ireland” some years ago.
Different, yes but the result is always the same. Customer sentiment will always dictate the price.
April 13, 2008 at 1:50 pm
No, nobody’s asking you to risk your neck, Sean. But what about a few hints where we might begin to look? If the information is there, there has to be some way in which an ingenious searcher could get access to it. I persist in this because everything else heretofore in this column is as nought compared with the value of having a sight of the figures we are here talking about.
April 13, 2008 at 1:57 pm
Further to my last post re ‘Sean’, does anyone know if the Freedom of Information Act can be used to oblige the government to disclose this information?
April 13, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Re my comments to ‘Sean’, does anyone know if the Freedom of Information
Act can be used to oblige the government to disclose this kind of information?
April 13, 2008 at 5:23 pm
I am a solicitor providing a variety of legal services however, conveyancing has taken up most of my time over recent years. To answer Alterkocker’s enquiry, as it happens, I was actually approached by third parties seeking legal advise surrounding this very issue. We are investigating the scope of the Act and possible merits of seeking application under said Act to gain access to the information. A number of my colleagues at other firms have often mentioned the subject of late.
April 13, 2008 at 11:21 pm
The information is available within the Revenue system, both through the stamp duty system and internal records linking all purchasers and sellers, however the problems in publishing the data are,
1) It could only be published in a form which did not identify or make it possible to identify an individual property, e.g. average price of 3 bed houses sold in Cavan in 2007, but not 3 bed houses sold in Belturbet, unless the numbers were substantial.
2) The cost. A Govt. office would have to charge for the provision of the information, under an FoI request. Collating the information electronically would only be part of the job, preparing & publishing it in an acceptable format would take a serious amount of time and time is money!
April 14, 2008 at 10:42 am
The sooner the better Cowen deals with Public Sector inefficiencies.
That comment regarding information being published will be totals and not being able to identify individual properties is a joke. You are attempting to hide behind a law which actually has no basis, i.e. privacy laws. These laws protect the ‘individual’ but the commercial application is a completely different situation. This will be challenged and you will judgements directing access to information down to house number and address levels. Similar information is available at other EU member states. Any objections by ‘vested interest groups’ will be challenged at the EU courts. The time has come for this level of information to be made freely available. Steps are being taken, watch this space.
April 15, 2008 at 6:19 pm
Why is it so hard to publish sold house prices, In the UK there are sites like this http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php that will allow you to search the landregistry and see sold prices.