The number of drops per day reached a new high again this week and is now 153 drops per day.
Over the period 6th April to the 13th April 2008 there were 1,069 price drops and the average drop was €24,611 or 6.24%. Over the same period there were 61 price increases. The average increase was €16,758 or 5.2%.
The 1,069 properties reduced the price by €26.3million in total.
The 61 properties increased the price by €1million in total.
April 13, 2008 at 11:27 pm
Incredible report.
The number of large falls seems bigger than before.
I wonder are sellers finally getting the message?
April 14, 2008 at 2:16 am
Not really .Its almost funny ,the no of houses that have dropped thier price by only 2 or 3 % in one year meanwhile the floor has fallen out below them. To sell now ,they need a 20 to 25 % reduction at least. Give it another 6 months and it will be at least
30 % you will need to have dropped ,to generate any interest.
April 14, 2008 at 9:22 am
You need to take into account scottie how many vendors have been advised (now theres a joke) by their EA to drop the price a little as opposed to dropping the price to where it will generate an interest from a buyer. As a result of this a lot of sellers will get stung by hanging around too long with a price too high and listening to the people who screwed them in the first place.
April 14, 2008 at 9:51 am
More worried about the 61 increases.
They are varied all over the country. What as these vendors being old by the EA to encourage them to up the price in this climate?
April 14, 2008 at 10:46 am
Those 61 price increases are nothing to be concerned about IMHO, it’s just a blip on the graph but this will be short lived.
April 14, 2008 at 11:31 am
Got to love the optimist that drops the price by €50. Lol
April 14, 2008 at 12:56 pm
IMPORTANT – 4 Phases of a Property Downturn.
Read this post, Ireland is currently going through Phases 1 & 2. The worst has to come!
http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?t=8968
April 14, 2008 at 1:14 pm
WOW!
Read that report on the 4 Phases of the Property Downturn.
Now we know the reason estate agents and the banks trying to ‘talk-up’ a false recovery in the market. Phases 3 and 4 look painful.
April 14, 2008 at 1:23 pm
This info is great. Is there any way I can import into Excel or sort the data as it is so can see the price drops in my county?
April 14, 2008 at 8:24 pm
The overall excel sheet was great as it gave a great historical picture for a are you are looking in. Any hope you could publish the total drop spreadsheet again?
April 14, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Balkanhawk & sadie
We’ll see what we can about the excel format over the next few days.
Should be able to get something sorted for you
April 15, 2008 at 8:49 am
To get the html into excel (2007 at least) you only need to go the report select all
(using ctrl + A) and the copy (ctrl + C), then go to excel and paste it, then sort away.
April 15, 2008 at 9:40 pm
Penny has finally dropped. We are in the middle of what was traditionally the Spring rush for selling houses. We couldn’t be further from a ‘rush’. Note much activity out there now for this time of the year. It’s all going south and I think some sellers are beginning to cope onto the extent of the problem and just how bad things are about to become. All the economic indicator needles are flipping back to low performance, consumer sentiment is very much less than favourable now and job losses are mounting. The arse is going to fall out of the property market now – thats my opinion. I’m going to sit back and watch it happen and will buy in 2 to 3 years time when bargains can be found.
April 15, 2008 at 10:28 pm
You have to read down through this post on http://www.thepropertypin.com
Basically, there are a handful of mortgage brokers, guys in the banking sector and so on who are in a position of knowing whats going on within the banks in terms of mortgage lending. The SHIT IS GOING TO HIT THE FAN and this will really drive house prices down to the floor. This is fresh of the press people – read this:
http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?t=9009
April 16, 2008 at 9:16 am
anyone else notice the easing in traffic? I do a school run from City to santry and back to Mespil rd every day, 30-40 mins now from santry to mespil, last few weeks, from 60 after Xmas. Time is usually 840 – 10 am Mon-Friday……..
Would love reports of shopping, traffic and other general business indicators……
M
April 16, 2008 at 5:51 pm
Yes Sir. The Irish property market has just ended a new period of doom gloom following the latest banking actions in Ireland. Funny how the estate agents STILL spinning false and misleading reports in the media. Think thes estate agents no the game is definitely over now. This property price nose dive is going to get very bad from this point forward. Finally, sellers are learning the hard way that 5%, 10% or even 15% drop in their asking will cut the deal. You will have to chop 20%+ off askings to even get interest in properties now after what the banks and lenders just done this week. No rate reduction this year at least. No property price rebound for a few years. This is going only onw way – DOWN, DOWN, DOWN. 4/5 years before recovery I reckon. Pitty Dunne, Ulster Bank must be all over him like a rash now.
April 16, 2008 at 7:39 pm
I’m just wondering why the excel format has disappeared. It’s not easy to track prices in particular areas without it!
Mary
April 17, 2008 at 11:35 am
The games up, and the EA’s know that they will not get the asking price on any advertised property …they expect typically 20% less so why drop the price on the websites? Keep them inflated or inflate them more and take the 20% hit on the asking price.. it makes sense
April 17, 2008 at 12:30 pm
so if a house is 310k(which is one i am looking at) and i drop 20% i could buy that house for 248k???…got mortgage but nowhere near the asking price
April 17, 2008 at 7:34 pm
Great site. It’s wonderful finally to have an independent voice on Irish property prices – backed up by figures. For years we have had no other choice but to listen to salesman posing as property experts in our prominent newspapers. Seldom, if ever did we hear from impartial economists who could tell us what was really going on in the market place.
My view is that prices will continue to fall until the historical trend line of household income to property value has been approached.
Keep up the good work – your site is appreciated. You may want to make your data searchable by writing it in a database like Microsoft Access.
April 17, 2008 at 8:03 pm
“I’m just wondering why the excel format has disappeared. It’s not easy to track prices in particular areas without it!
Mary”
Apologies for the temporary inconvenience Mary, but keep an eye on the site, very shortly your ability to track asking prices in your area will recieve a substantial boost..
April 17, 2008 at 11:06 pm
IPW we can’t wait. Just curious . . . if you’ve been approached or received any threats to have the site ’silenced’, i.e. injunction to take the site off the air?
Reason for the question . . . another excellent website called http://www.politics.ie relocated from being hosted in Ireland to now being hosted out of the USA. They had received serious threats to ‘put them out of business’ following mass visits and comments on the forums about Bertie and the FF gang. Smart move migrating the hosting to the USA as legally they can’t be chased now. Just a thought.
April 18, 2008 at 1:19 pm
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Tune into the Sunday Business Show, Today FM between 10:30am – 11:30am this weekend.
The estate agents, banking economists, builders and the Government are all engaged in a strategic plan to present the perception that the Irish property market is robust and in fact is about to show signs of a positive recovery.
The Sunday Business Show on Today FM will present the ‘facts’ to help you understand precisely the sort of spin and irresponsible behaviour which Sherry Fitzgerald, Douglas Newman Good, Lisney, Gunne’s and others are presenting in an effort to at least keep house prices inflated or in their eyes, try to encourage house prices back up to hyper inflated levels.
Do not miss this important and balanced radio debate.
http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?t=9148
April 18, 2008 at 2:28 pm
I have been following the reports posted here and also the comments and links very carefully pver the past months. With access to “behind the scenes” data it appears to me that a lot of your commentators are widely off the mark when they predict (and clearly hope for) an almost total collapse of the market across the board.
All the indications are that there is a clear out of over-supplied lego land developments in areas of doubtful value, (who was veer going to occupy the estates in Cavan ?) and slso Dublin properties which were wildly over-valued in 2006, usually bought in 2004/5 at already over-high prices.
This phase of correction is simply not going to result in a 60% cut slash and burn of all properties across the board. As always, quality properties in good locations which were not over-valued in the 2004/5 period and then boosted again on a wave of secondary speculation will remain solid.
The data published here is useful, but it is only a small part of the picture and needs to be used and analysed carefully along with the data which is, sadly not in the public domain, and is likely to remain that way.
If, using public data (historical and current) only we could all predict the next boom in the property or other markets, then we would all be George Soros.
Given the access I have to other data, I would say that we are near the bottom of the clear out, but what will happen is that the markets will remain slower then during the boom years, not a bad thing to return some stability.
April 18, 2008 at 2:47 pm
Hi Pete m.
Could you give us a few examples of what you called:
quality properties in good locations which were not over-valued in the 2004/5 period
April 18, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Pete, if we are near the bottom of the clear out then why does the stock of properties on the market keep growing?
http://daftwatch.atspace.com/
It just keeps going up and up and up. If we were clearing out the backlog then the amount of properties on the market should be going down shouldn’t it?
April 19, 2008 at 8:53 am
Pete M,
Hold your breath my friend, confidential data will be leaked soon to other websites, data which certain (shall remain nameless EA’s) have not been releaseing in order to mask the extent of the property slump. The raw data I refer to is coming from some on the inside
April 19, 2008 at 11:06 am
Pete M,
What planet are you living on? Any activity in the Spring selling season has been achieved through aggressively reducing asking prices. The expectation of further price cuts is firmly established, and with the constant stream of disastrous economic news from rising unemployment, declining economic growth, poor competitiveness, currency exchange rates inpacting on export growth, rising mortgage rates, increasing costs of living, difficulty in obtaining credit… etc… there will be no recovery in the housing market. While you may say that certain houses in certain areas of the country will perform better than others, I’m not sure why you bother. Obviously it’s true, but the overall trend of the market in negative, and with the massive overhang of unsold properties, no investor interest, declining yields, and the penny finally having dropped, the market will not stabalise within 3 years unless there is a period of very aggressive interest rate cuts by the ECB. This will not happen.
April 19, 2008 at 2:47 pm
Pete M,
Cole is on the money. I think you are taking a very narrow view of the market Pete. I am an economic analyst within a stock brokerage here in Dublin. There is absolutely no chance ECB will reduce rate in 2008 and possibly not during H1 2009. The primary monetary and fiscal strategy in Europe revolves around efforts to prevent inflation running loose. Right now, inflation is well in excess of the max. 2% average and rising. This is not good and if not kept in check, will become very serious for all Euro member states. So, while the inflationary pressures continue to rise you will see direct impacts here in the Irish economy, Specific to the housing crisis (and yes it is a crisis now), mortgage interest rates will rise (many providers already began taking necessary action this week). Credit lending criteria is becoming tighter and all providers, job losses are rising and will rise faster as the Euro strengthens against the Pound and the Dollar which feeds directly into our competitiveness as a nation. So the trend in job losses also feeds into the risk profiling at all mortgage providers. In other words Pete, a very serious credit crunch is now underway. You should read some of the threads over at http://www.thepropertypin.com where many contributors to that website are professionals like myself who work within banking and finance.
Property market values are falling and will continue to fall for a number of years. Rents are falling now due to the volume of property flooding into the rental sector as result of no offers from a sales attempt. As the rents fall, investors take the investment capital to other more attractive investment vehicles. The yields simply are not healthy within the rental sector, whether it be an apartment in Dublin, Cork, Limerick or Galway or a seasonal holiday home on the Shannon or on a coastal area. The markets are just not there now and this situation is / will get worse.
Repo’s are also increasing (this is not being reported due to the sensitive nature).
I think yyou and many others out there are possibly still in denial. This is the free market. This decline is needed, it flushes out the system and introduces stability (eventually). You should surf the white papers from the IMF, OECD, The Economist and so on for impartial comentry on the current state of the Irish property market.
But there is no mistaking, the market is in serious decline and this will worsen, people will be hurt and hurt badly.
April 19, 2008 at 3:27 pm
Pete Pete Pete….of course we dance with glee at falling prices and the collapse of a bubble, we are investors
But just try get a mortgage now…..u need permanent employment, 10-20% deposit which means for a 400K house you need at least 40grand!!!! now maybe its chump change to you in your nice job, but i dont think the majority have that to hand which means what Pete? go on , say it……prices will have to come down….
that wasnt so bad lad was it…..
April 19, 2008 at 6:27 pm
Oh and Pete and anyone else out there thinking of hitting their credit union for the 10 – 20% deposit, the mortgage providers have introduced new lending criteria just this week whereby the deposit must be saved with the mortgage provider and no other provider. So you see Pete, things are reverting back to the way it was in the 80’s, well at least in terms of how you go about availing of a mortgage. The deposit must be from steady savings and they will track this to see if the deposit was actually saved over a period of time. No chance of dumping a lump sum from the credit union loan into your First Active savings account or PTSB savings account, they insist on hard savings only – no flash cash. So that is going to hurt plenty of people attempting to avail of a mortgage. This applies to both FTB and those remortgaging. There was a time you could release up to 75% of your equity, not anymore, that is also stopped. The brakes are on as this credit crunch bites. Believe me, I should know, I work in loan issuing for one of the majors.
April 19, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Credit swaps in the US banking system is another pressure cooker ready to go bang shortly. This stuff is the really nasty positions held by various institutions over there with debt running into the US$Tn. When that hits the fan and it will hit, prepare for much further action within global financial players. The credit crunch is only beginning and the the really tough times in Ireland will lag behind the US timelines. Once those credit swaps go belly-up, watch for big names institutions going to the wall on a scale mirroring Enron. The effects will hit the Irish banking environment and the rest of Europe. These issues directly impact the Irish property market. So in this regard, it is extremely unlikely you will witness a gradual decline in property prices here, rather you will witness a more severe downward pressure. This cannot be controlled. Similar to other contributors to this thread, I can speak on this issue as I am a consultant economist to a US investment house based out of the IFSC.
April 19, 2008 at 7:18 pm
Read the treads posted by a poster who goes by the name “2Pack” on http://www.the propertyoin.com
We donno where he gets his information but so far everything he predicted has happened. He broadcasts very precise and specific information which ends up hitting the press a few days later. Take a luck at his contributions here:
http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?t=9180
I suspect he is an investigative journalist getting his teeth right into the what the estate agents are up to !
April 19, 2008 at 8:35 pm
[...] Sarah wrote an interesting post today on Comment on IPW Report # 15 – 1069 Price Drops by SarahHere’s a quick excerptThe deposit must be from steady savings and they will track this to see if the deposit was actually saved over a period of time. No chance of dumping a lump sum from the credit union loan into your First Active savings account or PTSB … [...]
April 19, 2008 at 10:04 pm
[...] Comment on IPW Report # 15 – 1069 Price Drops by Bernard Credit swaps in the US banking system is another pressure cooker ready to go bang shortly. This stuff is the really nasty positions held by various institutions over there with debt running into the US$Tn. When that hits the fan and it … [...]
April 20, 2008 at 6:58 pm
Currently the Irish tax system subsidises Irish bank lending through mortgage interest relief paid directly to the banks via the TRS system.
At present it looks like tax yield will be at least €2,000M short, but is probably running close to €4,000M short of target. This will put Ireland in breach of Maastricht requirements on debt.
The OECD has told the Government to remove mortgage interest relief, which will go some way towards balancing the books, but with a substantial proportion of loans being paid off via tax relief, any change to this relief will create huge problems for the banks.
The rest of us are subsidising the banks’ loans and if this subsidy is withdrawn then we will all be better off, other than bank shareholders who can deal with their managemwnt over loan practices.